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May 20 2024

St Paul’s showdown. Iran’s president. Facebook effect: The Roundup

May 20, 2024
David Akin's Roundup
Clippings of #cdnpoli, #media, and #tech content aimed at those with an interest in Canadian politics and policy. And sometimes Canadian postage stamps.
Canada
The Liberals have won every election in this riding  since 1993. In all but one, the successful Liberal candidate was Carolyn Bennett.  The last non-Liberal to win here was  Progressive Conservative Barbara McDougall who won the riding during Mulroney's majorities in both 1984 and 1988. In 2021,  Bennett received 49% of the vote and the second place CPC candidate finished with 26%. Leslie Church is the LIberal candidate for the June 24 by-election and hopes to succeed Bennett.  Given current polling, it seems unlikely Church will rack up a 20-point win. Indeed, my model right now suggests Church might prevail by 3 points or less over Conservative Don Stewart. Which means this is a toss-up the CPC could steal. - DA
Howard Sapers, a former Correctional Investigator of Canada, says Canadians deserve to know more about the law and why corrections officials make their decisions. [Global]
A dentist from the northern Ontario town of Blind River says he’ll probably have to expand his practice thanks to the Canadian Dental Care Plan. [CBC]
Post-pandemic changes in 10-year federal population forecasts were observed for men, women, and across regions. [GoC - Open Government Portal]
From the Provinces
Vaughn Palmer: Right-of-centre co-operation has been a feature of B.C. politics, but it'll likely take another NDP win to get it going this time. [Vancouver Sun]
Nova Scotia byelection vote set for Tuesday in riding formerly held by popular Tory
Heading into Tuesday’s vote the Tories hold 32 seats in the 55-seat Nova Scotia legislature, while the Liberals hold 15, the NDP has six seats and there is one Independent. [Global]
Elsewhere
The helicopter crash in which Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister and other officials were killed is likely to reverberate across the Middle East, where Iran’s influence runs wide and deep. [AP]
World reacts to the death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi
‘It wasn’t us!’, declares Israel as condolences pour in from around the globe following the news of Raisi’s death. [Al Jazeera]
South Africans don't elect their president directly, but instead vote for parties that get assigned seats in Parliament according to their share of the ballot. [Voice of America]
Public officials from Congress to City Hall are now regularly subjected to threats of violence. It’s changing how they do their jobs. [NYT]
As Canada's strategy for supporting Rohingya people expires, advocates are calling for a rethink of how Ottawa is trying to limit suffering in refugee camps in Bangladesh. [Global]

We find that homeowners and renters alike support price controls, demand subsidies, restrictions on Wall Street buyers, and subsidized affordable housing. The revealed-preference results further suggest, contrary to our expectations, that price controls and anti ``Wall Street'' restrictions are very important to voters. Contrary to the recommendations of housing economists and other experts, allowing more market-rate housing is regarded as ineffective and draws only middling levels of public support. Opponents of market-rate housing development also care more about the issue than do supporters. Finally, we show that people who claim that housing is very important to them don't have distinctive housing-policy preferences. [SSRN]
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Media

"We do think our results can inform readers’ priors about the potential effects of social media in the final weeks of high-profile national elections." [Nieman Journalism Lab]

Third-party fact checkers are starting to review Threads content, but the app doesn't have advanced search features yet. [PCMag]
Science and Tech
2023 temperatures were warmest we’ve seen for at least 2,000 years
Starting in June of last year, global temperatures went from very hot to extreme. Every single month since June, the globe has experienced the hottest temperatures for that month on record—that's 11 months in a row now, enough to ensure that 2023 was the hottest year on record, and 2024 will likely be similarly extreme. [Ars Technica]
How automaker lobbying threatens the global transition to electric vehicles. [Influence Map]

Companies like OpenAI and Google are trying to dominate the quickly emerging market for AI systems where people can ask questions of a computer — and get answers in the style of a human. But experts warn this could mean users must be more careful to verify the accuracy of AI responses. [CBC]

Don't let your warped vinyl get you down. Here's what you need to know about flattening your favorite LP. [CNET]
The Calendar
  • 1100 ET: Brampton, ON - Deputy PM and Fin Min Chrystia Freeland , Public Safety Min Dominic LeBlanc, Justice Min Arif Virani, Diversity Min Kamal Khera and Mayor Patrick Brown speak about combatting auto theft.
  • 1130 ET: Montreal, - Transport Min Pablo Rodriguez and Innovation, Science and Industry Min François-Philippe Champagne speak about combatting auto theft.
  • 1200 ET: Victoria, - GPC MP Elizabeth May participates in the Victoria Day Parade.
Issued this day ...
… in 1982: Scott # 912. Canada 82. Design: Stuart Bradley Ash.
To mark the 1982 International Philatelic Youth Exhibition, held in Toronto that year, Canada Post issued a series of 5 stamps featuring some of the icons of Canada’s postal history. This one, Scott #912, features an image from Scott #155 — the “Mount Hurd” stamp, issued in 1928. A mint condition “Mount Hurd” stamp has a catalogue value of $60. This 1982 reproduction might set you back 75 cents at your nearest stamp dealer. 

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