At about the three-week mark of the campaign, a new Abacus Data poll conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025 finds the Liberals holding a 4-point lead over the Conservatives.
We see not only a shift in raw vote intention but a broader convergence of factors—leader impressions, expectations of who will form the next government, and top-of-mind issues—that now firmly favour the Liberals heading into the final stretch of the campaign. [Abacus Data]
Éric Grenier: If Mark Carney was trailing Pierre Poilievre in his personal ratings, on preferred prime minister or on a major election issue, I’d suggest that there would be reason to believe that the Liberals’ support could soften — it’s usually the case that a leader’s numbers act as a drag (or a balloon) on a party’s numbers. But every indicator suggests that there isn’t an underlying vulnerability in the Liberals’ support. Carney has better personal numbers than Poilievre (and Jagmeet Singh) and polls show that a plurality or majority of Canadians think the Liberals will win and, knowing that, it isn’t changing their voting behaviour. Even the demographic crosstabs argue in favour of a turnout boost for the Liberals, not the Conservatives. There is nothing in the polling data that points to a high likelihood that the Liberal numbers will fade in the final stretch.
So, that means something has to happen to move the numbers. The two debates taking place on Wednesday and Thursday will be opportunities for that. [The Writ]
Éric's seat projection model as of Saturday was a LIBERAL MAJORITY government with: LPC - 198 CPC - 121 BQ - 18 NDP - 5 GPC - 1
My seat model also has a LIBERAL MAJORITY at this point with the following numbers: LPC - 200 CPC - 121 BQ - 20 NDP - 2
Liberal Leader Mark Carney introduced the 'Canada Strong Pass' on Saturday, offering free access to national galleries, museums and VIA Rail for kids. [Global]
In this premiere episode, I sit down with Pierre and Ana Poilievre for a conversation that goes beyond politics. We talk about life, identity, childhood, family, and the moments that shaped them... and yes, we also discuss their vision for Canada. This isn’t a political interview. It’s a real conversation about the people behind the public image. [Camila Gonzalez] Ms Gonzalez can claim this is not a political interview but of course it is. This is the second, maybe third, time she's been given a 'candid interview' with the Poilievre's since Pierre launched his leadership and this focus on Poilievre as husband and dad has been very much a part of the CPC messaging for the last year.
New digital put up by the CPC, pushed on both Pierre and Ana Poilievre's social feeds. Stars Conservative MP and former Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer. Remember as you watch this: Polls show that the CPC and Poilievre are trailing badly among women. Does this kind of video help with women? Or is it aimed at the bro' vote? Watch and tell me what you think. [Instagram] - DA
Claims of harassment, public disavowals by influencers, and fractured campaign management threaten to further derail the NDP’s performance with just weeks to go — all while insiders tell the story of a disorganized campaign failing to communicate with candidates. [The Rover]
Should you need it, here is the Elections Canada list of confirmed candidates for the 45th General Election. You can search by riding for a candidate list or download the whole list in either .csv format or PDF. [Elections Canada] -DA
The U.S. military has fired the commander of a U.S. Space Force base in Greenland following a visit there by Vice President JD Vance and said it would not tolerate actions that "subvert" President Donald Trump's agenda. [Reuters]
... the Trump administration believes it has what game theorists call escalation dominance over China and any other economy with which it has a bilateral trade deficit. Escalation dominance, in the words of a report by the RAND Corporation, means that “a combatant has the ability to escalate a conflict in ways that will be disadvantageous or costly to the adversary while the adversary cannot do the same in return.” If the administration’s logic is correct, then China, Canada, and any other country that retaliates against U.S. tariffs is indeed playing a losing hand.
Track how international trade policies affect grocery prices, compare retail prices, and calculate living expenses with our suite of economic tools. [The Cost Index] Great tool!
Overall Price Level & Distributional Effects: The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 2.9% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $4,700 in 2024$. Annual pre-substitution losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $2,100. The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.7%, a $2,700 loss per household. [The Budget Lab at Yale]
Governor Tim Walz today announced a new dashboard Minnesotans can use to track disruptions and cancellations of federal funding and their impact on services available to Minnesotans. Federal disruptions and cuts so far include grants to track measles and avian influenza, provide heating assistance, and mitigate flooding. Seems like a smart idea by Walz. [State of Minnesota]
The Associated Press today unveiled a new, AI-powered content delivery platform that makes it easier to discover and use the global news organization's. [AP]
A software developer starts her day by logging into the company’s project management system. An AI-powered notification immediately populates her task list, prioritized by an algorithm that has analysed project deadlines, and her past performance patterns. Throughout the day, the system tracks her commits, code quality metrics and time spent on each ticket. It automatically flags her when she falls behind the predicted pace for a task.
Algorithmic management represents a fundamental shift in how organizations function, but they can’t replace the human element. Here’s how to tell if your boss is really an algorithm. [Built In]
A new list of goods to be excluded from the latest round of tariffs on U.S. importers was released, and it includes smartphones, PCs, servers and other technology goods, many of which are assembled in China. [Barron's]
The Calendar
0900 ET: Timmins, ON - NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh makes an announcement and speaks to reporters.
1000 ET: Ottawa, - Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre makes an announcement and speaks to reporters.
1100 ET: Alma, QC - BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet campaigns in the riding of Lac-Saint-Jean
1200 ET: Timmins, ON - NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaigns in the riding of Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk
1330 ET: L’Ascension-de-Notre-Seigneur, QC - BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet campaigns in the riding of Jonquière
1415 ET: Timmins, ON - NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaigns in the riding of Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk
1415 ET: L’Ascension-de-Notre-Seigneur, QC - BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet makes an announcement and speaks to reporters.
1800 ET - Montreal - LPC Leader Mark Carney appears on Tout le monde en parle.
1815 ET: Toronto, - NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaigns in Toronto