Mar 29, 2023
David Akin's Roundup
A bonus special edition of the clippings newsletter -- with thumbnail reactions to this weeks' federal budget.
Canada
2023 Federal Budget: Reaction Roundup
Bank economists, industry groups and non-governmental organizations have now had the chance to review the 2023 federal budget and their reactions are filling my e-mail inbox. You can review the budget documents yourself here

Below, are the highlights from the e-mails I've received today and late yesterday. I've copied and pasted excerpts of their reactions and, where the e-mail to me included a link for a deeper analysis, I've embedded that link in the title of the group.
The Economist Party
BMO Capital Markets
"This budget ... avoids doing a number of things. Most importantly, large-scale immediate fiscal stimulus is held in check with net new measures weighing at around 0.2% of GDP this year. While inflation has shown signs of cooling, the Bank of Canada remains in a dog fight with price and wage pressures, rendering stimulative measures counterproductive (like direct support payments), although Ottawa just couldn’t fully resist on that front. Oft-rumoured and more contentious policy measures (e.g., broad capital gains inclusion rate, top income tax rate and principal residence exemption) are again unchanged in this budget.
All told, this budget continues to push fiscal priorities against a weaker and riskier economic backdrop, leaving behind a deeper deficit path." - Robert Kavcic

CIBC Capital Markets
"...as revenue growth slows, fresh items on the policy menu would not only threaten that progress, but could give a push to inflation in what is for now a fully-employed economy. The 2023 budget still makes a healthy meal out of new initiatives, but attempts to save some fiscal calories by skipping desert, trimming spending in government operations, repurposing money that had been allocated in past budgets for other programs, and raising taxes here and there."  - Avery Shenfeld / Andrew Grantham

Scotiabank Economics
"...make no mistake that Ottawa is very much about big government getting bigger. More invasive. More intrusive in all facets of our lives. Cumulative deficits over the next five years amount to $161 billion which blew away the PBO’s estimate of $140B going into the budget for a 15% forecast miss. There is no longer even a useless future placeholder showing a return to balance as years and years of deficits are being piled on. The risk is toward even bigger deficits if GDP performs worse than expected versus the Budget’s use of stale forecasts from February (before recent turmoil) and that project no contraction. Ever. Hallelujah, it’s a miracle! If targeted cost savings fail to materialize, then that too could add to the deficit and I’ll believe Ottawa’s promise to spend less on consultants when I see it. And if the NDP’s ongoing demands for a national pharmacare program resurface in future as another condition of support for the Libs then deficits will explode by even more." - Derek Holt

TD Economics
"...this minority government once again leaned into spending. Much of the increase in spending is accounted for by the increase in health transfers, which were previously known, and on programs aimed at securing Canada’s competitiveness in the clean energy transition. The latter in particular might be viewed as being critical give the sprint Canada is doing to reach 40% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2030, on the way to net zero by 2050." - Preston/Fong/Orlando
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Business groups
Business Council of Canada
"In January the Business Council urged the federal government to meet the moment by delivering a budget that would strengthen Canada’s economic security and improve the ability of Canadian companies to compete globally. Yesterday’s budget contained elements of such a strategy. But the worsening fiscal picture leaves me concerned about Canada’s future growth prospects."

Canadian Association of Energy Contractors
The CAOEC recognizes progress has been made for the energy services sector with new tax credits for clean technology manufacturing and processing, and critical mineral extraction and processing. The investment creates a level playing field with the United States to encourage investment in our energy industry.

Canadian Cattle Association
...welcomes ... the proposed creation of a Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) vaccine bank with an investment of $57.5 million over five years to develop emergency response plans and establish the vaccine bank.

Canadian Dental Hygenists Association
...(the budget) will provide millions of uninsured Canadians with dental and dental hygiene care they need to maintain proper health. For years, CDHA has advocated for increased access to preventive oral care to improve health outcomes, and Budget 2023 is a big step in the right direction.

Canadian Federation of Agriculture
...welcomes a number of announcements in the 2023 Federal Budget, with investments made in transportation logistics, animal health emergency preparedness, and an increase in interest-free limit under the Advance Payments Program to help producers’ rising costs.

Canadian Federation of Independent Business
..pleased that today’s federal budget confirms a deal to lower credit card fees for small merchants, as promised in last fall’s economic statement. However, the budget was a missed opportunity to provide relief to small businesses facing massive debt loads and cost increases.

Canadian Lenders Association
...disappointed at today’s announcement to lower the maximum allowable rate of interest to 35 per cent from a 47 per cent Annual Percentage Rate.

Canadian Steel Producers Association
... pleased to see this budget significantly expand the climate toolkit to support heavy industry’s competitiveness as Canada moves towards a net zero economy. While members are still assessing the details, we are encouraged to see investment tax credits for carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, clean technology manufacturing, and clean electricity in the budget.

Council of Canadian Innovators
..We are in a difficult and uncertain economic environment for the tech sector, and today’s budget did little to support Canada’s most promising businesses through a challenging time.
While we appreciate the government’s commitment to Canada’s clean technology sector, the fact remains Canada’s innovation policy still lacks a focus on the key ownership and intellectual property tools that build real, lasting national wealth.

Craft Brewers Association of Canada
While [the] slight reduction in the excise tax increase comes at a crucial time, more needs to be done to support the growth of Canada’s craft brewing industry.

Forest Products Association of Canada
(This) budget ... delivered on the promise of forest biomass from Canada’s sustainably managed forests. In the face of worsening and more catastrophic fire patterns, today’s budget recognized that we need to do more to build new markets for stranded wood fibre and wood waste, realize the climate benefits of our biomass here at home, and help maximize carbon sinks in our forests.

MDA
..extremely pleased to see Canada take a giant leap in the rapidly-growing space economy with a significant commitment to a new flagship robotics mission to the surface of the Moon. The $1.2 billion investment towards a Canadian lunar utility vehicle sends a loud and important signal to the global commercial and government space community that Canada is open for business and intends to aggressively compete to secure our share of this advanced tech innovation market and the high quality jobs it will create.

Ontario Chamber of Commerce
...welcome commitments made in Budget 2023 to unlock the potential of the green economy, advance economic reconciliation, mitigate supply chain challenges, and bolster health care resilience – all of which are fundamental to a strong economy,

Railway Association of Canada
... the federal government's move to resurrect the failed policy of extended regulated interswitching misguided and harmful to Canada's supply chains. This policy will cause Canadians to pay more for virtually everything that moves by rail."
Civil Society Groups and Unions
Bigger Than Our Borders
...At a time of enormous need globally, the Canadian government has failed to deliver on its promise to increase foreign aid every year. As part of Federal Budget 2023, the government declined to announce new investments for any international aid programs. The coalition of over 80 NGOs - representing a wide-range of development, humanitarian, environmental and advocacy groups - said that compared to Budget 2022, the overall international assistance funding was cut by no less than $1.3 billion – a 15% cut. The decision by the government to cut foreign aid comes amidst a world facing multiple crises around climate change, hunger, conflict and an erosion of human rights and democratic values.

Canada's Building Trades Unions
... The definition of Prevailing Wage outlined in the Budget is a huge win for workers – providing one of the strongest definitions we’ve ever had in Canada.

Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness
It’s clear that the federal government does not see the scale and urgency of these crises, and have offered no solutions. For thousands of Canadians who will not be able to pay their rent this week, they will find no relief or meaningful support in this budget. Too many others will be projected unnecessarily into the life-threatening experience of homelessness.

Canadian Taxpayers Federation
This budget is giving taxpayers big deficits, more money wasted on interest charges and higher taxes. This government doesn’t care about fiscal prudence or helping taxpayers.

CARDUS
With many families struggling because of high inflation, the federal government is right to target predatory lending. However, Cardus is disappointed the budget focuses entirely on the cost of loans without addressing the real challenge of inequitable access to credit.

Federation of Canadian Municipalities
...progress on some priority issues for Canadian municipalities, and leaves significant gaps on other critical challenges facing communities and cities.

Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center
...welcomes the proposed investments the Government of Canada announced in its latest budget to combat hate and discrimination, including increased funding for a security program to protect community institutions such as synagogues and Jewish day schools and community centres.

Government of Ontario
"Our government appreciates the federal government working with us in a number of areas to help Ontario families, workers, and businesses. Together, we have attracted billions of dollars in investments, putting Ontario and Canada back on the map as an automotive powerhouse..." - Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy

Public Service Alliance of Canada
...government’s plan to cut nearly $15 billion in [federal] programs and services over the next four years is a major step backwards as they should be focused on building a strong social safety net when Canadians need it most.

Teamsters Canada
... welcomes the newly released Federal Budget 2023 as it provides relief to middle-class families. The budget includes a variety of measures designed to protect Canadians' economic security in the context of a rising cost of living.

UNICEF Canada
...Canada missed an opportunity to boost its international assistance, especially at this critical time when children around the world are facing an unprecedented array of crises – from conflict and climate change, to soaring rates of malnutrition and the persistent socioeconomic consequences of a global pandemic.
Green Groups
The Atmospheric Fund
Today’s federal budget demonstrates that the government is committing to keeping pace with massive clean energy investment in the U.S. and across the globe. The unprecedented allocation of funds to build out clean electricity, representing $28 billion over 13 years, is very welcome.

Canadian Renewable Energy Association
(Budget 2023's) announcements are a strong and necessary step, accelerating our progress toward net zero. Canadian investment tax credits will stabilize investment opportunities, while safeguarding affordability for Canadians. These new incentives will help create good jobs in clean energy and make Canada a leader in the energy transition.

Clean Energy Canada
...a carefully considered hand. While the transition to clean energy is a nation-building project that won’t be complete in one fell swoop, Tuesday’s budget builds on Canada’s pre-existing climate measures while injecting capital into a clean industrial strategy, helping secure our nation’s many competitive advantages. Foremost is a historic investment in building Canada’s clean electricity supply...

Clean Prosperity
...smart, market-oriented measures to increase Canada’s low-carbon competitiveness. It is a big boost for clean energy, even though it will not close the gap with the United States on important technologies like hydrogen and direct air capture.

Climate Action Network
(Budget 2023) shows serious dedication to scaling up renewables and building a clean grid to underpin our future energy systems, with tens of billions for clean electricity. This substantial carrot must be matched by an equally robust stick: the Clean Electricity Standard the government is developing must be stringent and exclude loopholes for fossil fuels.

David Suzuki Foundation
...historic investment in clean electricity in today’s federal budget marks an important turning point. These investments will help unlock Canada’s potential for affordable, renewable electricity — driving down emissions and positioning Canada as a global leader in the clean economy. 

Environmental Defence
... budget does include significant investments in renewable energy and electrification, however, the support given to climate solutions is still a fraction of what is being spent on subsidizing the fossil fuels that are causing the climate emergency.

Ivey Foundation
...budget demonstrates the Government of Canada’s commitment to ensuring the country’s long-term economic competitiveness and prosperity in a rapidly decarbonizing global economy. In particular, we applaud how Canada’s competitive advantages – like clean electricity, clean hydrogen, critical minerals and zero-emissions vehicle manufacturing – are recognized and prioritized with targeted tax credits and investments that will help position Canada's key industries for success.

Pembina Institute
..sends a clear message that Canada is committed to building a cleaner future. We were pleased to see investments that support the development of the low-carbon economy, while also creating good, long-term jobs for Canadians.

Renewable Industries Canada
The new Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit is a welcome and important start to help attract capital and spur domestic production in Canada. However, not extending the same investment tools to domestic low carbon liquid biofuels production is concerning.

Indigenous organizations
Métis Nation of Alberta
...applauded the 2023 Federal budget, including the express recognition of the advancement of self-determination and self-government with Métis.

Métis Nation of Ontario
... applauded the 2023 Federal budget, including the express recognition of the advancement of self-determination and self-government with Métis.

Native Women's Association of Canada
...disheartened that the federal government’s Budget 2023 has once again failed to address critical issues facing Indigenous women, girls, and gender-diverse people: particularly addressing MMIWG and economic opportunity.
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